Tia On Global Changes

10-28-97 & 11-4-97



Tia; Hi there.
Russ; Hi Tia.
Tia; Well what do you want to know today?
R; Well I'd like to get a status check on global changes……
Tia; They've already started.
R; OK, but with that, where is the defining point where we could see some evidence of that?
Tia; Hmmm, well morals is always a good thing to look at. Something else to look at is crime statistics.
R; The thing with morals and crime statistics is something that you can't really see as a pattern will increase dramatically. It's more something like watching a baby grow up. You can't really see the growth changes because you're growing with it.
Tia; Correct, but if you look back over the past you can see that there is a difference. Also you need to look at other things along the lines of economic behaviors in countries externally. For example, Malaysia, Germany. You need to look at their unemployment figures and their outgoing money into such social services as unemployment benefits.
R; So the changes that we are talking about are worldwide changes, not something restricted to just the United States?
Tia; No I've never said that there were any that were restricted to the United States. All on a worldwide scale. Certainly there are things you can look at internally such as morals, crime statistics, the general level of frustration with social and economic behaviors, growth, increase in spending, new house starts, increase in spending is something that normally occurs before the event happens. People seem to buy luxury items they can ill afford but they see them as necessary. Things like dishwashers, new cars, big screen TV's, things of that nature. Durable goods I believe it is called. They don't seem to be interested in buying important things, necessities.
R; What about bank failures?
Tia; Bank failures can play a role in it but I don't see it as a problem.
R; So the savings and loan failures of the 80's weren't really any kind of a factor?
Tia; A little. That goes into risky businesses, but if it happens again, then it begins to form a pattern.
R; I see.
Tia; OK, any more questions?
R; No.
Tia; All right, I'm off.

Stock Market Comparisons

11-4-98

Tia; Hi Russ.
Russ; Hi there Tia.
Tia; OK, let's get down to business and the hundred and thirty nine point rise in the stock market after the two hundred and fifty point plummet of last week and concerning what is going on.
R; Well apparently according to analysts it was supposed to plummet again this week.
Tia; Well they were wrong, which brings me into a nice little dissertation. Looking at the 1929 stock market crash, and the fascination of the people of the time with the fact that inflation was history, there would never be a bear market ever again and the fascination with the new technology of the time. Also, the new fascination with the rich of the time and the constant questing of the populous for information these stars created by the new media. There is an interesting comparison between what I just mentioned of 1929 and what is going on now. In most respects they're almost identical. What does that suggest? Well that suggests that people have forgotten. Very few people remember the crash of 1929. Even fewer lived through it in a financial capacity. The comparisons are striking. The funny thing is that in 1898, a mini crash occurred. Thirty years later there was a massive crash. In the mini crash of 1898, comments were made that inflation was under control, there would never ever be a bear market again. The question I have is why are people so forgetful?
R; I'd have to disagree.
Tia; Why.
R; Well more has been written and studied about the 1929 crash than most events in history. From it's very inception to it's recovery. Every financial analyst on Wall Street has it's causes and effects committed to memory. They certainly know how to avoid it now.
Tia; But they keep charging in regardless anyway. The fact that the circumstances are very similar should be enough to warn them.
R; Well they feel that they can control the circumstances this time.
Tia; That's what they said then. They said we can control it. We know what to look for. You see?
R; Hmmm, very interesting.
Tia; OK, do you have any more questions for me?
R; Not at this time.
Tia; OK, I'll put the next speaker on.


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