Tia; Hi there.
Russ; Hi Tia.
Tia; Well what do you want to know today?
R; Well I'd like to get a status check on global
Tia; They've already started.
R; OK, but with that, where is the defining point
where we could see some evidence of that?
Tia; Hmmm, well morals is always a good thing to
look at. Something else to look at is crime
R; The thing with morals and crime statistics is
something that you can't really see as a pattern
will increase dramatically. It's more something like
watching a baby grow up. You can't really see the
growth changes because you're growing with it.
Tia; Correct, but if you look back over the past you
can see that there is a difference. Also you need to
look at other things along the lines of economic
behaviors in countries externally. For example,
Malaysia, Germany. You need to look at their
unemployment figures and their outgoing money into
such social services as unemployment benefits.
R; So the changes that we are talking about are
worldwide changes, not something restricted to just
the United States?
Tia; No I've never said that there were any that
were restricted to the United States. All on a
worldwide scale. Certainly there are things you can
look at internally such as morals, crime statistics,
the general level of frustration with social and
economic behaviors, growth, increase in spending,
new house starts, increase in spending is something
that normally occurs before the event happens.
People seem to buy luxury items they can ill afford
but they see them as necessary. Things like
dishwashers, new cars, big screen TV's, things of
that nature. Durable goods I believe it is called.
They don't seem to be interested in buying important
R; What about bank failures?
Tia; Bank failures can play a role in it but I don't
see it as a problem.
R; So the savings and loan failures of the 80's
weren't really any kind of a factor?
Tia; A little. That goes into risky businesses, but
if it happens again, then it begins to form a
R; I see.
Tia; OK, any more questions?
Tia; All right, I'm off.
Tia; Hi Russ.
Russ; Hi there Tia.
Tia; OK, let's get down to business and the
hundred and thirty nine point rise in the stock
market after the two hundred and fifty point
plummet of last week and concerning what is
R; Well apparently according to analysts it was
supposed to plummet again this week.
Tia; Well they were wrong, which brings me into
a nice little dissertation. Looking at the 1929
stock market crash, and the fascination of the
people of the time with the fact that inflation
was history, there would never be a bear market
ever again and the fascination with the new
technology of the time. Also, the new
fascination with the rich of the time and the
constant questing of the populous for
information these stars created by the new
media. There is an interesting comparison
between what I just mentioned of 1929 and what
is going on now. In most respects they're almost
identical. What does that suggest? Well that
suggests that people have forgotten. Very few
people remember the crash of 1929. Even fewer
lived through it in a financial capacity. The
comparisons are striking. The funny thing is
that in 1898, a mini crash occurred. Thirty
years later there was a massive crash. In the
mini crash of 1898, comments were made that
inflation was under control, there would never
ever be a bear market again. The question I have
is why are people so forgetful?
R; I'd have to disagree.
R; Well more has been written and studied about
the 1929 crash than most events in history. From
it's very inception to it's recovery. Every
financial analyst on Wall Street has it's causes
and effects committed to memory. They certainly
know how to avoid it now.
Tia; But they keep charging in regardless
anyway. The fact that the circumstances are very
similar should be enough to warn them.
R; Well they feel that they can control the
circumstances this time.
Tia; That's what they said then. They said we
can control it. We know what to look for. You
R; Hmmm, very interesting.
Tia; OK, do you have any more questions for me?
R; Not at this time.
Tia; OK, I'll put the next speaker on.